Monthly Archive: December 2021

On Deboonkers

Deboonk-ism is a phenomenon by which people rush at debunking what's perceived to be a wild conspiracy theory. Debunking, as in deconstructing a theory or a system, can be a great way to analyze a problem. However, in most cases it's done out of faith and prejudice, without any real research to truly understand the root of the issue at hand, which is usually a lot more complex than initially thought.

The typical deboonker has a general idea of what the scientific method is about, but has also an idealistic view of science, as some religion that is practiced in academic circles and that is able to produce consistently objective results, all with an acceptable degree of confidence, and all vetted and communicated by benevolent gate keepers coming from the corporate world, political world and the press.

It becomes then a tribal and religious act, one that does more harm than good. Tribalism is a human thing, but modern social media has certainly amplified the effect. We all have a tendency to hypercorrect trends. Truth may be in the middle, but we tend to get there by arguing by extremes and holding certain beliefs for years at the time. Anything that doesn't conform to a prescribed narrative, is immediately ridiculed an belittled, no room is given to skepticism and actual critical thinking. Hypotheses that are ad odds with the mandate of the day are quickly shot down. Any evidence, or lack of evidence, is dismissed on the spot, as some infectious disease that will rot the mind in minutes.

From a social perspective, it pays to follow the mainline, because the infrastructure of conformism gives some form of insurance towards mistakes, it's a shield against humiliation. As long as you stick with the plan, you have moral right to debunk the skeptics. You won't be criticized in case of obvious mistakes, because you were simply following a narrative coming from above, and those that are above are professionals at deflecting blame (see "George Carlin on the language of politics", a must watch in my book).

On the other hand, being a skeptic is dangerous, because any mistake becomes automatically confirmation that one should not have dared to stray from the herd. Even worse, one is automatically bundled together with any other person that is considered to be a skeptic, also known as "guilt by association"… i.e. "you're not one of those flat-Earthers, are you ?".

The social pressure makes things worse, because the more rational skeptics tend to be silent for fear of reprisal, leaving the job to speak out to those that may be a bit too obsessive if not downright paranoid. This amplifies the effect of conformism, where the deboonkers can go wild, and wild they go. It's a power trip to be right on social media, dispensing smackdowns on the few that still dare to bring up points that sound too crazy to be true, whether or not there's any actual truth to be had.From a purely practical perspective, being a conformist and toning down critical thinking is necessary to make things work in a collective. There's no doubt that humanity gets in the way of productivity. As technology improves, we employ more and more robots to help us with labor, but robots aren't necessarily mechanical. Historically, the majority of humans have been employed to work in a very organized fashion, something that requires limited critical thinking and limited creativity.

Even in a future in which less labor will be required of us, for as long as we're considered an asset, or even just a competing force to be discouraged, there will be a structure in place to sustain uniformity of thought. I guess that deboonkers are here to stay.

The explosive “boredom” problem of civilized societies

As years go by, it's harder and harder to find movies that I'm interested to watch. One could say a lot on the evolution of the movie industry and how high budgets correlate with low creative risk. For sure, we could do better than yet another "retired hitman is forced to do one last job"… kill me now ! However, as creative and intelligent a script can be, at the fundamental level there are only so many narratives that attract the general public.

Story lines follow the demand from a public that has certain basic fundamental tastes, some of which are timeless, just like our own biology (we do evolve, but primordial instincts are hard to shake off). Entertainment may have cultural flavors, but at the core, the stories that are told are revealing of human nature. The popular themes and tropes clearly show what we consider exciting and what we'd be curious to experience. Under that light, we should also note how much of what we consume does include extreme danger, loss of life, crime, violence, wars, torture, post-apocalyptic settings, dystopic settings and more.

Some say that portrayal and glorification of those themes is a form of instigation. That may be true in part, but there's clearly a positive response from the public. It's not like we're unable to demonstrate disgust and to walk away from what we don't like. Conflict and violence clearly attract us (generalizing here, this certainly varies across genders, age groups and individuals).To me this is revelatory of the "dark" side that exists in people both individually and as a collective. The risk of war, mass discrimination, oppression and self-inflicted totalitarian regimes, is always present, because as humans, we still crave for some kind of strong experiences, some drama and strong feelings. It's a form of masochism that we need in order to check some of our biological boxes.

It's no surprise then, that at the first appearance of something remotely reminiscent of a zombie apocalypse, millions and billions of people jump in to play the game. Finally some entertainment where one isn't just a spectator, but also a participant. It's all so much more interesting than the old boring life. There are things to do, procedures and rituals, dictated by patriarchal and matriarchal leaders and their high priests. Suddenly, living becomes surviving, as well as having the power to save lives, and the power to prevent others from endangering lives.

Many live a life of struggles and may sometimes wish for a collapse of society, hoping that a new throw of the dice may give them something better. This is understandable, but what intrigues me more is how people that live a generally comfortable life are so often also ready to jump in and play, simply because their life is boring, and normal forms of entertainment are just not enough.

This is probably also what happens with organized violence that tends to come out from supporters of sports like soccer, where some younger spectators enact urban battlefields for no reason other than to let loose and to get a fix of violence and the relative adrenaline rush that comes with it. It would be too easy to categorize hooligans as crazy... they are men whose ancestors survived because of their fighting skills. There is a genetic component that cannot simply be repressed.If you're a leader aspiring to more raw power, this state of relative boredom should help you to steer the masses where you want. However, from a perspective of an ethical leader that aims at a more stable and rational society, a society that is less "hackable", it would be important to promote a lifestyle that is just less boring.

Some here will quickly point the failures of the education system… if only institutions could impart more knowledge and a better civic sense, but this avoids the root of the problem. No amount of schooling is going to erase certain instincts. Education can help to repress instincts and primordial needs, but repression breeds instability.

I'm not sure what would take to build a society that is both efficient and not too deprived of the kind of experiences that fulfill certain primordial calls. Because work tends to take a good chunk of life, and it's often a source of boredom and frustration, the ability to let people periodically rotate on more exciting jobs may be helpful, although not very productive and potentially dangerous. Who knows, maybe some amount of VR could alleviate the issue, although I'm not the biggest advocate for living surrogate lives.

I don't see an easy solution, but it would be already a step forward to admit that civilized societies are a breeding ground for explosions of mass hysterias, and that we should start to acknowledge and deal with our instincts, instead of ignoring and repressing them with a veneer of culture or, even worse, with drugs.

You are probably being simulated, to some degree

I recently released another video presentation on algorithmic trading where I state that in order for that to be practical, it’s necessary to have the ability to simulate activity on a market.

In the presentation, I also mentioned how pervasive the concept of computer simulation already is, using a few well-known examples, but the concept of simulation is a lot more fundamental and it has a lot more potential than what it’s being used in engineering, weather forecast or architecture.

Having a computer model of anything is going to be more and more necessary to be competitive at the global scale. This is both for big business and nations (not that there’s much difference anymore).

In the early 80s, the movie “WarGames” introduced me to the availability of personal computers, and also to the concept of simulation. At the center of the movie, there is a NORAD computer capable of simulating thermonuclear war scenarios, something that is probably the most believable and realistic feature of that fictional computer.

One can only imagine how truly advanced are high-end government-funded simulations today, which can be built to deal with just about anything, including in some ways our own lives. Nowadays there is so much personal data that is being collected and used by more than one entity, that it would be plausible to think that somewhere there is a simulation that can have a good guess on when I’ll be stepping out of the house to go to the convenience store next. If not today, it’s only matter of decades.

I should pause for a minute here and clarify the fundamental difference that I see between the concept of statistical models and a simulation (disclaimer: I’m not academically trained on any of this).

A statistical model gives a snapshot of a data set. Correlations can be drawn to reach conclusions, and simple extrapolations can also be made, as some form of prediction.

A simulation is more like an animation. Models for each actor are built, then they are iterated in a simulated timeline. A simulation system is inherently more powerful because it implicitly requires that elements at play are coded in a programming language.

電子マネー|自販機情報|ダイドードリンコIn my specific case, that simulation wouldn’t be able to guess what I’ll be buying, because of my refusal to use point cards and because I still use cash whenever I can, but more and more people use some form of point cards and digital payments.

It’s safe to say that these simulations will only increase in detail and accuracy with time. The reason why this is tolerated is, firstly, because there are some practical benefits to everyday life. The more a system knows you, the more it will be ready to cater to your needs.

The second major reason why this is possible is that we’re all fairly narcissistic. We want to be noticed, be that through some work that we do, some opinions that we express, or even to be tracked by some kind of Big Brother software. This is because from an existential point of view, it’s better to be spied on than to be ignored. I'm guessing that this is something that is ingrained at the biological level (animal species do this instinctively), and something that modern means of communication have exacerbated to an extreme.

There is a downside to all of this. The convenience and perhaps, warm feeling, of existing also as a lump of data in some digital cloud, can also turn into a massive inconvenience. Here comes the typical privacy issue, where any “good citizens” that has nothing to hide, sooner or later can find himself or herself on the wrong side of those with the keys to data and simulation of any individual that has been deemed as a threat. This will always be true, unless we now believe that any kind of progress is possible without some form of opposition, and unless we believe that those in power somehow like to play fair, because they are just a bunch of sensitive and altruistic souls.

That turned into a little bit of a rant, but that’s just an example of the power and potential repercussions that can come from the application of computer simulation when applied to a field that is perhaps less obvious, but potentially much more consequential to the human race.

Kibun Tenkan, VR edition

There's a useful term in the Japanese language. One of those terms that one adopts because it really fits nicely the concept. The term is "kibun tenkan" [気分転換] which loosely translates as "change of pace/mood", but it's used more when there's a breakthrough moment that leads to some change. At least that's how I use it.

Breakthrough moments are often more about a recognition of something that had been brewing for a while, and this is definitely the case here. I've felt for a long time that entertainment was a time waster that took me from doing things. Then a few years ago I was listening to a Q&A after a John Carmack presentation about his work at Oculus. In the presentation he talked about optimizing rendering for mobile, with a special focus on the Netflix VR theatre app.

This app places the user in a beautiful and cozy living room with a fantastic view of snowy mountains outside and a megascreen where to watch the Netflix content.

In the Q&A, an attendee perhaps naively, perhaps facetiously, asked to Carmack, what was the point of the app. Carmack paused a little and answered something along the lines of: "it's for those that want to experience that setting, but that cannot have it in real life" (paraphrasing here).

That both sounded like a plausible alternative, but also like an act of pity. It's one thing to want to experience something truly exceptional like recklessly flying a 100 million dollars jet fighter, climbing a mountain with no training, or exploring deep space, but it's pretty sad when VR becomes a surrogate to something that almost anyone could obtain by working hard and becoming moderately wealthy. Granted, money can't buy the kind of teleportation that VR offers, but who needs to jump around when you can spend a few real days in a real place ?

That to me was a "fuck this" moment. I don't want my passion for technology to become also a limitation of my ambitions in life. Nothing that really matters is easy to obtain. I'm not buying into this.

More classical entertainment, such as movie and TV series, can also be a huge time waster, but with VR, things can really go to the next level, in a bad way. If we also add the push now to create a metaverse out of social media, then we're talking of a potential to truly turn billions of people into atrophied zombies.

I'm all for innovation, but I can't see an upside to this. In fact, I think that this can be considered a colossal scam. The elites will continue to accumulate actual wealth, buying land, estate and commodities, while the general population is sold the virtual equivalent of those.

Many will buy into this, because the world is chock full of NPCs, but you've been warned.

Mass formations and loss of freedom

Last month I listened to an interesting interview titled "Why People WILLINGLY Give Up Their Freedoms" with Prof. Mattias Desmet on the Aubrey Marcus podcast. Here the focus was about "mass formation", a term used to define mass events and mass hysterias like we're experiencing these days.

The discussion can be seen on Aubrey Marcus's YouTube channel. I'm not sure how the rest of the channel is, but this podcast episode was very interesting to me, if anything because it confirmed my impression of how society moves and because it gives a framework to better understand what is happening.

Here's the full video:

Here's a list of key points that I thought were worth highlighting:

  • [@1139 s] -- People are happy to follow the narrative of perpetual fears because the anxiety that derives from it allows for a new social bond. Bonding being something that humans crave for, but that lacks in modern large societies.
  • [@1247 s] -- Mass formations are a kind of hypnosis. Hypnosis is possible when someone is made focus on a narrow view of things (i.e. a virus), and away from a broader perspective (i.e. loss of freedoms). See for example anestesia via hypnosis, where the mind of the patient is being focused to the point that he/she can't feel pain in a certain spot.
    Here Aubrey notices that ability to focus on something and ignore the broader picture is important for productivity and for mental sanity, so it's a double-edged sword.
  • [@2067 s] -- Raw intelligence of the individual doesn't matter. In a mass formation, the collective mind takes over and anyone can lose the ability to be a critical thinker.
  • [@2170 s] -- In a mass formation, only about 30% of the people are hypnotized in the beginning. Then there's an additional 40% that goes along, even if they may not agree, because they don't want to or are afraid to go against this vocal minority. The remaining 20-30% are those that do speak out one way or another.
  • [@2645 s] -- It's essential to continue to speak out against the narrative at the root of a mass formation. The hypnosis may not disappear, but it can become less deep, which may be just enough to avoid extreme deterioration of the situation (see: dehumanization, labeling as "domestic terrorist").
    Note: It's also my conviction that one should never expect for a person to change his/her mind on a topic just from a new batch of information. It's a slow process of detoxification that requires time to take shape.
  • [@3664 s] -- Sacrifice makes for an even stronger social bonding, and it's glorified. Giving up on Christmas celebration with families, wearing masks and social distancing are all big and small sacrifices that make people feel closer to each other. It becomes a ritual, and people can go to great lengths and perform extreme sacrifices while under the spell of this mass hypnosis.
    Note: As an example, see the brotherhood that derives from combat during wars. Sharing danger makes for very strong bonding.
  • [@4224 s] -- In 1953, Hannah Arendt said that even though we've seen the decline and fall of Nazism and Stalinism, the trend towards totalitarianism hasn't stopped, and very soon we'll see a form of world-wide totalitarianism that is lead no longer by strong leader figures, but by technocrats and bureaucrats.
    Nevertheless, totalitarianism is always self-destructive and it's likely that now we'll just have to wait for this new form of totalitarianism to rise and fall. In the meantime, it may be a good idea to be on the sidelines while this happens.

Tokyo-Roma, andata e ritorno (2021/11)

Questo e' un breve post sulla mia esperienza di viaggio da Tokyo a Roma sotto le norme relative al COVID-19 per Novembre. Queste norme sono in continua evoluzione, quindi e' importante aggiornarsi individualmente sullo stato delle cose all'atto della propria partenza.

Consiglio i seguenti siti per tenersi informati:


Per prepararmi al viaggio in Italia (via Amsterdam) ho eseguito un test molecolare, anche detto RT-PCR, o PCR, 72 ore prima dell'arrivo in Italia (non semplicemente prima della partenza). L'ho pagato 16,000 yen, presso questa clinica a Shinjuku, che e' in un seminterrato alla destra di un hotel.

Ho poi anche compilato la Passenger Locator Form digitale (dPLF) europeo e stampata e salvata sul telefonino.

All'imbarco ho mostrato risultato del test PCR e dPLF.

L'arrivo e' stato abbastanza semplice. Ho mostrato la dPLF e forse anche il test PCR. C'e' stata un po' di confusione sulla questione di potenziale quarantena. Mi e' stato poi detto di andare e seguire le norme della dPLF, qualsiasi fossero.

Ritorno: Roma -> Parigi

Il ritorno (via Parigi) e' stato piu' complicato. Di nuovo e' servito un nuovo test molecolare, teoreticamente 72 ore prima della partenza, ma ho voluto farlo 72 ore prima dell'arrivo, a scanso di equivoci. Purtroppo partivo lunedi' alle 6:10, quindi non potevo fare il test il venerdi'.

Mia madre contatta una clinica che gli assicura che potro' fare il test il sabato. Al sabato il ragazzo allo sportello ci dice che il molecolare non si fa il fine settimana. Gli diciamo che ci era stato detto altrimenti, fa una chiamata e da l'ok per il test. Poi ci dice che il risultato sara' disponibile per lunedi'. Gli diciamo che serve per domenica, chiede di nuovo e ci da l'ok.

Il test prenotato e' multilingua, ovvero con diciture sia in italiano che in inglese. Questo e' importante. Le diciture anche in inglese sono essenziali. Alternativamente c'e' un modulo con diciture in italiano ed inglese che si puo' compilare per convalidare un test che e' solo in italiano. Questo modulo va pero' firmato da un dottore.

Poche ore dopo il test, arriva un risultato parziale delle analisi (avevo fatto anche le analisi del sangue, oltre al test molecolare), con la riga relativa al test per COVID mostrato "...In Corso", e sulla destra una spiegazione del valore ideale con "Negativo" ed una descrizione addizionale in italiano ed inglese. Notare che questa e' solo una descrizione di esempio sulle aspettative del risultato finale.

Arriva poi un'altra email con un link per accedere al ministero della sanita' dal quale ottenere in Green Pass, tramite codice fiscale.

Domenica non arrivano piu' aggiornamenti sui test da parte del laboratorio. Tecnicamente ho il Green Pass che mostra risultato negativo, ed una sigla che riconduce al laboratorio che ha fatto il test, piu' i risultati parziali del test da parte di quel laboratorio. Quindi nel peggiore dei casi le cose sono riconducibili, ma con un processo di spiegazione che non e' ideale.

Lunedi' mattina vado per imbarcarmi per Tokyo via Parigi. La signora al check-in mi dice subito che non posso partire perche' mi manca questa "applicazione Cocoa". Non so di cosa parli, penso che si tratta forse di una applicazione cartacea o di una traduzione sballata (Cocoa e' anche un API di Apple). Alla fine riesco a persuadere la signora dello staff del fatto che ho istruzioni piu' aggiornate, e mi fa passare con il Green Pass da 72 ore.

Scopro poi che Cocoa e' una applicazione di contact tracing sviluppata intorno alle olimpiadi. All'arrivo in Giappone viene forse richiesto di installarla a gli utenti di iPhone, mentre a chi ha Android (come me) si chiede di installare Google Maps (ed abilitare il tracking).

Ritorno: Parigi -> Tokyo

A Parigi 5 ore di attesa. Un'ora buona la passo in fila per il check dei passaporti. Una situazione infernale, col senno di poi forse migliorabile se avessi corso subito per il cambio, senza fermarmi diversi minuti a confermare il cancello sul pannello dei voli.

Aspetto le 3-4 ore rimanenti in una lounge senza preoccuparmi. Mi dirigo poi verso l'imbarco con il Green Pass alla mano e mi viene immediatamente detto che non posso partire, che devo avere un altro modulo. Spiego che il modulo e' opzionale, l'importante e' avere i dati richiesti da quel modulo. Ovvero nome, cognome, passaporto, data del test, clinica che ha eseguito il test.

Lo staff delle linee aree sembra provare un particolare gusto nel silurarti subito le aspettative di partenza, come se niente fosse.

La palla passa poi ad una signora dello staff giapponese dell'Air France, la quale mi dice che serve il risultato del test dalla clinica. La situazione e' molto movimentata, con un altro paio di persone in una situazione simile, tra cui un francese con due bambini sui 3-5 anni che penso stessero tornando dalla madre in Giappone, e che tentava disperatamente di trovare informazioni sulla clinica dove aveva eseguito il suo test. Bambini seduti a terra chi sa da quanto, distratti con i contenuti di una borsa aperta e la signora dello staff che si scusava con loro in giapponese.

Mostro il risultato temporaneo dei miei test clinici, mandandolo via email per poter essere visionato sull'iPad Mini della signora dello staff. Nel marasma, grazie anche allo schermo piccolo dell'iPad Mini, riesco a far passare la descrizione di esempio di risultato "Negativo" come quella effettiva. Quell' "...In Corso" viene ignorato. Non e' una bugia, ma e' una semplificazione sicuramente utile al caso. Mi viene contestato comunque il fatto che la data ha la denominazione solo in italiano "Eseguito il" e che potrebbe essere un problema all'arrivo. E' stato anche importante che nel test figurasse il tipo di campionamento come "Nasopharyngeal".

Salgo sull'aereo e scrivo a mia madre della situazione precaria. Mia madre prontamente va nel laboratorio a contestare ed in pochi minuti ho il risultato finale, pronto per l'arrivo !

Ritorno: arrivo a Tokyo

All'arrivo escono prima i passeggeri in transito e poi gli altri. Ci fanno sedere su delle sedie numerate e ci danno dei moduli da completare, in giapponese o in inglese a scelta. Passa una signorina chiamando il mio nome per consegnarmi il risultato del test provvisorio che avevo mandato via email alla signora dello staff dell'Air France all'imbarco, la quale evidentemente l'aveva mandata via email in Giappone in tempo per il mio arrivo. Spiego che e' un risultato temporaneo e che ho quello definitivo sul telefonino.

Inizia il processo di accettazione, con vari passaggi, tutto ben organizzato e con il classico rispetto dei servizi giapponesi. La ragazza che deve installare lo spyware sul mio telefonino, all'inizio mi chiede se puo' toccare lo schermo. Se l'ironia facesse parte del bagaglio umoristico giapponese, ci saremmo fatti due risate. Mi trattengo dal fare qualche commento sarcastico per evitare di creare una eccezione nel sistema.

Procedo attraverso i vari posti di blocco di questa lunga camminata e ad un certo punto mi si chiede il risultato del test PCR, mostro il telefonino con il PDF del risultato e viene accettato, per farmi procedere alla prossima tappa.

La procedura, di accettazione pre-immigrazione, finisce con il risultato del test salivare, con un campione rilevato all'inizio. Arrivo quindi all'immigrazione e li' il risultato deve essere su carta. Il ragazzo dello sportello all'immigrazione va da un altro ragazzo, il quale si attiva, mi fa sedere e dopo 10-20 minuti arrivano due ragazze che mi chiedono di mandare il test su un indirizzo email. Dopo altri 20 minuti circa, le ragazze tornano con il test stampato. In fine arrivano i due ragazzi precedenti, e mi danno l'ok per l'immigrazione e finalmente verso la dogana !

Al ritiro bagagli sono rimaste solo tre valige, tra cui la mia con un foglio sopra ed un cane nei paraggi. La quantita' minima di passeggeri e la lunga attesa del processo, ha dato ampio tempo al cane della dogana per trovare qualche tipo di obiezione, sono marchiato per un controllo sull'importazione degli alimenti. Li si scoprono dei tortellini secchi al prosciutto. Gli addetti dibattono per un po', c'e' un foro in una delle confezioni, mi si chiede se possono prendere un campione ed analizzare un tortellino (!), per confermare il contenuto, anche se avevo gia' ammesso che fossero ripieni, benche' secchi.

Finalmente si decide che i tortellini vanno confiscati, perche' tecnicamente nel ripieno c'e' carne. La valigia viene richiusa a forza, visto che era piuttosto piena e gli spazi erano ottimizzati.

Vado finalmente alla dogana, e l'addetto mi chiede di aprire anche lui la valigia. Apre, ispeziona, e richiude di nuovo a forza, un po' con il mio aiuto.

Ritorno: verso casa

L'aereoporto e' deserto e devo trovare un modo per tornare senza usare i normali mezzi pubblici. Alle informazioni mi danno un foglietto con delle possibilita', tutto rigorosamente in giapponese, tra cui numeri per "hired cars", ovvero taxi privati abilitati per il tragitto, per circa 27,000 yen da Narita. Opto invece per questo Keisei Smart Access Premium da 20,000 yen, prenotabile al piano sotto all'arrivo, allo sportello informazioni della Keisei.

Con questo servizio, si prende lo Skyliner da Narita Airport ad Ueno, sull'ultimo vagone che e' dedicato a chi viene dall'estero e deve dirigersi verso casa per stare in quarantena. Tra le regole da osservare c'e' quella di non lasciare la carrozza dedicata e di non mangiare o bere nulla ne nella carrozza ne nel taxi a seguire.

Salgo sul treno, quasi vuoto, nel vagone dedicato, dove sono l'unico passeggero. All'arrivo a Ueno station, una signorina mi accoglie all'uscita del treno e mi porta direttamente verso il taxi privato (o "hired car"), il quale mi porta a casa, indirizzo che avevo gia' fornito al momento della prenotazione.

Ora dovro' stare 14 giorni richiuso in casa e rispondere piu' volte al giorno a controlli da parte del governo giapponese tramite lo spyware installato sul mio telefonino.